The News is too politically correct to say it, but the biggest factor in this race will undoubtedly be race. For Mark Schroeder to have a chance at winning, he'll need at least 90% of the South Buffalo vote and hope for a big turnout there. Unfortunately for Mark, South Buffalo has a long history of being divided politically (about 35 years to be exact). When James Keane ran for County Executive a few years back, his South Buffalo enemies came out in full force to back the unknown Chris Collins. A sizable South Buffalo group helped Brown defeat Michael Kearns in a previous mayoral contest a few years back. I couldn't tell you the last South Buffalo resident to win a city wide primary. I know Kevin Horrigan and Mark Catenzarro attempted it and were stabbed in the back by some of their neighbors in exchange for menial patronage jobs
The African American voters stick together. The Irish historically do not. For Mark Schroeder to be competitive, he'll have to try and reach out beyond the South Buffalo political clique. Word is some people outside of this clique are organizing this time. Reportedly, plans are in the works for a campaign office on South Park or Seneca Street (areas long forgotten by the South Buffalo political clique). The group's leaders realize that sitting back and supporting the latest South Buffalo candidate may not be in their best interest. They note, many of Schroeder's financial backers stem from the surrounding suburbs. People with no vested interest in supporting the working poor. The working poor feel they may have more in common with Pridgen's supporters than the South Buffalo ex-patriots who will be funding Schroeder's campaign.
It will be interesting to see whether Mark acknowledges this group of alienated voters or simply takes their support for granted. Any South Buffalo candidate faces the difficult task of uniting a divided base in a city wide race. It's too early to tell, as countless scenarios could play out before November 2017. Stay tuned.
